How to forecast occupancy, covers, or ticket sales

To forecast your sales, you need to create a realistic, month-by-month estimate of your potential income for the first year. This involves calculating your maximum capacity (e.g., rooms, restaurant seats, or tour slots), estimating how much of that capacity you will sell based on seasonal demand, and then multiplying that by your average price. This forecast is the foundation of your entire financial plan, helping you manage cash flow and set realistic goals.

What are you forecasting?

Your main sales metric depends on your type of business:

• Accommodation (Hotels, B&Bs): Your key metric is the Occupancy Rate (%). This is the percentage of your available rooms that you expect to sell.
• Food & Beverage (Restaurants, Cafes): You will forecast Covers. This is simply the number of customers you expect to serve.
• Attractions & Tours: Your forecast will be based on Ticket Sales, meaning the number of tickets you expect to sell.

How to Build Your 12-Month Sales Forecast

The best approach is to create a simple spreadsheet with a column for each month. This will help you visualise the ups and downs of the year ahead.

1. Calculate Your Maximum Capacity: First, work out the absolute maximum you could sell. For example, if you have 10 hotel rooms, your maximum capacity for a 30-day month is 300 'room nights' (10 rooms x 30 nights). If you have a 40-seat cafe open for lunch and dinner, your daily capacity might be 80 covers, or 2,400 for the month.
2. Research Seasonal Demand: No business is 100% full all year. Research your local area's tourism trends. When is the peak season (e.g., summer holidays)? When is the off-peak season (e.g., January-February)? Are there local festivals, conferences, or half-term holidays that will create busy weeks? Use this to estimate a realistic percentage of your capacity you think you'll sell each month.
3. Estimate Your Sales Volume: Now combine capacity and demand. For your 10-room hotel, you might forecast 90% occupancy in August (0.90 x 300 = 270 room nights sold), but only 40% in February (0.40 x 280 = 112 room nights sold). Be realistic – as a new business, it's wise to be conservative.
4. Apply Your Pricing: Multiply your estimated sales volume by your average price. Remember to factor in any changes in your pricing strategy. You might charge £150 per room in August (£150 x 270 = £40,500 revenue) but only £90 in February (£90 x 112 = £10,080 revenue).

Top Tip: Be conservative with your numbers. It’s easy to be optimistic, but a forecast based on hope is not a useful business tool. It's better to plan for lower sales and be pleasantly surprised than to run out of cash because you overestimated your income.

By following these steps for each of the next 12 months, you will create a powerful financial forecast that gives you a clear picture of your expected revenue throughout the year.